Time in Turbulence: How the War in Iran Is Affecting the Second Hand Watch Market

Geopolitical conflict rarely stays confined to politics. When tensions escalate around Iran, the effects move quickly through oil markets, currencies, inflation expectations and investor psychology. The second hand watch market, which sits at the intersection of luxury consumption and alternative assets, is not immune.

To understand what may happen next, it is useful to look back at history. The most relevant parallel is the Iranian Revolution.

The 1979 Parallel

In 1979, political upheaval in Iran led to sharp disruptions in global oil supply. Prices surged, inflation accelerated across Western economies, and consumer confidence deteriorated. The shock fed into a broader period of economic instability that defined the early 1980s.

At the same time, the watch industry was already facing pressure from the quartz crisis. Swiss mechanical watchmakers experienced severe contraction. Many brands reduced production or disappeared altogether. Ironically, the scarcity created during that period later contributed to the rarity and collectibility of certain mechanical models from the late 1970s and early 1980s.

The lesson from 1979 is twofold. First, geopolitical shocks that originate in Iran can have global economic consequences through energy markets. Second, periods of crisis often reshape supply and long term collectibility in ways that are not immediately obvious.

Oil, Inflation and Discretionary Spending

Iran’s strategic position in global energy supply means that military escalation quickly affects oil prices. Rising energy costs feed inflation, and inflation erodes disposable income. Luxury purchases, including pre owned watches, are typically sensitive to these shifts.

Euro zone inflation rose more than expected last month but remained below the European Central Bank's 2% target, fresh data showed on Tuesday 3rd of March, before a likely higher hit from surging oil and gas prices.
In the meantime, the global oil prices has already increased of +2.3%, but more is expected if the conflict prolongs.

When households and investors feel economic pressure, mid tier and fashion driven watches are usually the first to experience softer demand. Buyers become more selective. Transactions slow. Price negotiations become more aggressive.

However, the top end of the market often behaves differently.

Watches as Portable Stores of Value

In uncertain times, some collectors treat iconic mechanical watches as portable and tangible stores of value. This is particularly true for highly liquid models from brands such as Rolex and Patek Philippe. These pieces benefit from global brand recognition, deep secondary market liquidity and established price histories.

During broader financial stress, capital sometimes rotates out of volatile equities into tangible assets. Gold is the traditional example, but high end watches have increasingly entered that conversation over the past decade. While they are not true safe haven assets in the classical financial sense, they can demonstrate relative resilience compared with more speculative luxury goods.

Since the starting of the conflict on February 28th, the gold prices experienced a significant, volatile spike on March 2, 2026, arriving to a high of 4'670€ per ounce before retreating to around 4'499€–4'537€.

The 1979 period supports this logic indirectly. Mechanical watches were not sought after as investments at the time, yet the supply contraction and survival of flagship models later created strong secondary market performance for certain references. Today, with a mature and transparent resale ecosystem, the response can be faster and more visible.

Liquidity Pressures and Seller Behavior

Conflict also changes seller behavior. Dealers facing higher financing costs or slower turnover may reduce inventory or adjust pricing more quickly. Private collectors who feel exposed to volatile markets may decide to liquidate pieces to raise cash.

If supply increases at the same time that discretionary demand weakens, prices in the second hand segment can soften. This tends to affect less established brands first, followed by more niche independent makers. Blue chip references generally experience smaller corrections, though they are not immune.

The key difference compared with 1979 is market structure. Today’s secondary watch market is global, digital and data driven. Pricing adjusts faster. Arbitrage opportunities close quickly. Volatility can appear and resolve within months rather than years.

Regional Dynamics

The Middle East plays a meaningful role in global luxury consumption and trade. Cities such as Dubai function as major hubs for high value watch transactions. Any disruption to travel, shipping routes or regional wealth flows can influence both supply and demand in the pre owned segment.

Higher insurance premiums, transport risk and currency fluctuations can all affect dealer margins. Even if the conflict remains geographically contained, its economic footprint can be wide.

A Market at a Crossroads

The second hand watch market is currently richer of information than it was in the late 1970s. Data platforms, online marketplaces and auction transparency have turned watches into quasi alternative assets. That makes the sector more sensitive to macroeconomic shifts, but also more adaptive.

If the conflict leads to sustained energy price spikes and recessionary pressure, softer demand in the broader luxury segment is likely. At the same time, the most established and liquid watch references could demonstrate relative stability as capital concentrates in perceived quality.

The experience of 1979 shows that geopolitical shocks can permanently alter industry structure. Scarcity created in moments of crisis can echo for decades in the collector market. For today’s participants, the challenge is to distinguish between short term volatility and structural change.

Time, as always, will determine which watches simply survive this period and which emerge from it more desirable than ever.