What Could Happen to the Pre-Owned Luxury Watch Market in 2026 if U.S. Tariffs Stay in Place

Executive summary: what will happen in short

If the current U.S. tariffs on Swiss watches remain in place through 2026, the global watch world will likely shift in interesting ways.

New watches will stay more expensive in the U.S., while Europe and Asia may become the main trading grounds for both new and second-hand pieces.
The pre-owned (second-hand) market, already strong in 2025, could become the true heartbeat of luxury watch trading next year.
The pre-owned market overall is already robust:  in H1-2025 it was the best quarter in years for some segments.
This gives the secondary market ammunition to absorb regional shocks.

Across regions the dominant dynamic will be geography of availability + buyer willingness to pay the tariff-driven premium. 

Macro foundation: what we know (sources)

1. Swiss exports to the U.S. collapsed in September 2025 after a 39% tariff,  industry press and Bloomberg / Swiss industry figures show a very steep drop in shipments. That’s a real shock to physical flows.

2. Pre-owned market strength: Chrono24 and market reports show the second-hand market was unusually strong in 2025 (lots of demand, especially from younger buyers). That gives the secondary market structural resilience to a new shock. 

3. Industry cautions and retail realities — Deloitte’s 2025 Swiss watch industry study flags in-store buying, Gen-Z shifts, and the tariff shock as key factors to watch. 

Because the tariff directly raises the price of new imported Swiss watches into the U.S., the immediate mechanical effect is lower new imports → lower official supply to U.S. boutiques → changed flows into the pre-owned market.

Deloitte Study about Watch Market in 2025

How the next 12 months will look by region (detailed)

United States: big fall in new imports, mixed effect for pre-owned

Because of tariffs, Swiss watches shipped to the U.S. are about 30–40% more expensive than before.
That means fewer new pieces coming in, and those that do arrive will cost more at retail.

What happens next? Collectors and new buyers may turn to the pre-owned market, where prices aren’t directly tied to import duties.
If you already own a desirable watch (like a Rolex Submariner, an Audemars Piguet Royal Oak, or a Patek sports model), it could hold its value or even rise slightly, simply because fewer new ones will be available.

However, for more common or mid-range watches (like Omega, Tudor, or TAG Heuer), prices might soften if dealers try to sell off extra inventory or redirect European stock to the U.S.

➡️ Expected movement (in euros):

• Popular steel sport watches: 0% to +10%

• Mid-range luxury models: -2% or lower impact
  

Europe: More Supply, Slight Price Pressure

Europe will likely receive the watches that can’t be sold easily in the U.S. That extra supply could put mild pressure on prices, especially for more common models.

Still, the European pre-owned market is deep and healthy. Collectors continue to pay strong money for rare or iconic models, especially those that are hard to get new.

➡️ Expected movement in next months (in euros):

• • Rare and desirable models (Sportive Rolex): +0% to +8%
    

  • Vintage watches: stable

Asia (China, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, SEA): variable but overall resilient/upside

In Asia, the story is very different. Demand from Hong Kong, mainland China, Japan, and Singapore remains strong.
Buyers there are still keen on established Swiss brands, and many are willing to pay for top-condition pre-owned pieces.

If more Swiss stock gets redirected from the U.S. to Asia, it will probably be absorbed easily — meaning prices for sought-after models could rise further.

➡️ Expected movement (in euros):

• • Top Sportive watches: +5% to +15%

  • Not famous, but luxury models: flat to -5%
    

The Gold Factor — Will Metal Prices Help?

Many banks and analysts expect gold to climb toward $4,000–$4,500 per ounce (around €3,400–€3,900/oz) by late 2026.
That’s good news for gold watch owners — it creates a floor value since the metal itself becomes more expensive.

That said, gold watches don’t move one-for-one with bullion. A gold watch’s price depends much more on brand and style than on the raw material. But if gold keeps rising, the “floor” under gold watch prices should get a bit higher.

Which Watches Might Do Better (and Which Might Not)

Likely Winners:

• Popular steel sport models: Rolex, Patek, Audemars Piguet, and similar. Supply is limited, demand is global.

• Limited editions and independents: anything rare or with a story tends to hold up well.

• Well-kept vintage watches: true collector pieces will remain valuable.

More Vulnerable:

• Mass-produced new models that rely on retail sales (often hit hardest by tariffs).

• Common vintage models: lots of supply, fewer buyers.
  

Stable for now:

• Gold or two-tone dress watches: beautiful and with a gold price rising, but less “in demand” with younger buyers.

Scarcity & inventories: how shortages will evolve

• Short-term (0–6 months): boutiques in the U.S. will report fewer new Swiss shipments; European and Asian gray channels will absorb some of that stock. Overall scarcity for top models persists because manufacturers control production tightly.  

• Medium term (6–12 months): if tariffs remain, manufacturers may reallocate supply permanently away from the U.S. (or price differently). That reallocation changes regional scarcity: U.S. may either see tight domestic secondary (if much desirable stock is already there) or softening (if importers flood used inventory to capture discounted margins). Predict higher volatility in U.S. pre-owned prices vs the steadier Europe/Asia markets.

Practical takeaways for collectors, sellers and investors that we think are relevant:

• If you own a steel grail (Rolex steel sport, AP Royal Oak steel, Patek steel sport): hold rather than sell immediately, scarcity and demand from Asia/Europe should keep values solid. Consider sell-only-if you need liquidity during short dips.

• If you own mid-tier watches (common Omegas, Tudors, fashion brands): be prepared for moderate price pressure, selling into a stronger market now may fetch better EUR prices.

• If you’re in the U.S. and want exposure: compare buying domestically vs importing used from Europe/Asia. Tariffs make new imports costly; for pre-owned, check duty/tariff treatment carefully (customs can treat used imports differently depending on classification and origin).

Last note: this article reflects our personal opinion and research, it’s not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence before buying, selling, or investing in watches.